Over the past two years, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has evolved significantly. Russia initiated the invasion by attacking Ukraine from three directions: the south (from Crimea and the Black Sea), the east (from the Donbass region and the border), and the north (from Belarus and the border). Despite facing significant disadvantages in military strength, resources, and allies, Ukraine resisted the invasion.
Russia made strategic advances by capturing key cities and ports such as Mariupol, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, imposing a naval blockade on Ukraine and cutting off its access to the Black Sea and global markets. However, Ukraine managed to regain some ground in Kharkiv and recaptured Kherson, a strategic city on the Black Sea coast.
Several significant events marked the conflict, including the signing of the Black Sea Grain initiative to facilitate the safe transportation of grain and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, the accusations and counter-accusations regarding the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, and the damaging of the Kerch Strait bridge.
Military actions intensified, leading to the Battle of Bakhmut, resulting in significant casualties on both sides. In 2023, Ukraine faced a challenge from the Wagner group, a Russian-backed private military company, during its counteroffensive operation.
Recently, Russia captured Avdiivka, near Donetsk, marking its largest territorial gain. Despite initial predictions of a quick Russian victory, Ukraine has managed to hold its ground and repel Russian attacks.
Russia has maintained an advantage over Ukraine in terms of military strength, resources, and diplomacy. It has adapted a war of attrition strategy, using hybrid warfare, cyberattacks, and propaganda. The conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis, with millions of civilians internally displaced or forced to flee to neighboring countries. Geopolitically, the war has challenged the transatlantic system and UN, impacting bilateral relations between Russia and other countries.
Looking ahead, Russia aims to achieve its strategic and political objectives in Ukraine, such as weakening its sovereignty and challenging US and NATO influence in the region. Ukraine seeks to restore its borders and integrity, while Russia aims to maintain its occupied territories and ensure Ukraine’s neutrality. The incompatible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine may further escalate the conflict.
